This is Grant on basketball.
The Miami Heat are going to win the NBA Finals. I’ve seen enough, I’m ready to call it.
They’re going to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games.
I feel this way because both teams proved themselves yesterday, winning tough games on the road, like two boxers who defined themselves with big late round knock outs. They’re good enough, and they know they can win on the road in the playoffs.
The Thunder will beat the Mavericks because no one on Dallas can stop Russell Westbrook from penetrating the lane, which is how he makes the Thunder click on offense.
The Heat will beat the Bulls because Dwyane Wade will out play Chicago’s best player, Derrick Rose.
The Heat will win because of Wade. Lebron James is not a great end-of-game closer like Kobe Bryant, but Wade is. Wade might even be the best in basketball right now. He can guard Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook as well, which is even more important. The fact that the Heat are small inside won’t hurt them because the Lakers and the Magic, the two big teams, are out.
With the Heat and Thunder going to the finals, there will officially be a “changing of the guard” in the NBA. No longer will big men and post play decide championships. Superstar wing men will lead their teams to the Finals, like Kevin Durant and James and Wade and Rose. Teams need wing defenders to match up with these players, not seven footers as much. This is an interesting change that seems to work in the Warriors’ favor, since they never have a decent seven-footer.
This changing of the guard will inform the way the Warriors reshape their roster for next season. They have five rotation players locked in – Curry, Ellis, Wright, Lee, and Udoh. They need three more rotation players, who can defend and shoot. The Warriors have enough offense between Curry, Ellis, Wright, and Lee, even though none of them post up. Their offense needs space in the lane to drive the basketball and run the pick and roll to be effective.
So the Warriors need to add three defender/shooters to their rotation. It’s looking like the NBA is going to lock out its players just like the NFL, so Joe Lacob and Larry Riley can’t think about free agency yet. They’ve got to use their two draft picks to fill two of those three remaining spots. Here’s what I think they’ll do.
If the Warriors draft 11th, which they likely will, they’ll draft F/C Markieff Morris from the University of Kansas.
Morris is Udoh’s size, but a better rebounder and a better shooter – Morris shot 25 for 59 on three pointers last season and he has good mechanics on his shot. Morris would give the Warriors a solid three-big rotation which most importantly would not include Andris Biedrins. No team has a serious shot to make the playoffs giving that stiff any serious minutes.
With their second round pick, Lacob and Riley will draft a wing defender, and I’m saying that guy will be Justin Holiday from the University of Washington. Jrue Holiday’s brother, Justin is 6’6” with long arms, so he can guard both twos and threes off the bench. He’s also an improving shooter – he shot 47 for 131 three pointers last season.
Finally, Jeremy Lin will become the third guard off the bench. He’s a heck of a defender already – he can also drive the lane and pass. If he can improve his jumper this offseason, he’s a lock to win the eighth spot in the Warriors’ 2011/12 rotation.
Here’s what that rotation would look like:
Curry/Lin
Ellis/R. Williams (re-signed for cheap thanks to subpar ‘10/ ’11 season)
Wright/Holiday
Morris/Udoh
Lee/Udoh
That team makes the playoffs next season, don’t you think?
